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Sunday, January 30, 2011

My 2011 Top 125 Prospects List

Once a year, I like to compile my own top prospects list for the forthcoming year. To be eligible for this list, a prospect must be eligible to win that year's ROY award.

Disclaimer: I have not personally seen any of these players in action, but I have read numerous scouting reports on them, as well as videos. This list consists of my own opinions, nothing more.

J.P.’s Top 125 Prospects List For 2011
  1. Bryce Harper (Nationals)
  2. Mike Trout (Angels)
  3. Domonic Brown (Phillies)
  4. Julio Teheran (Braves)
  5. Jeremy Hellickson (Rays)
  6. Jesus Montero (Yankees)
  7. Aroldis Chapman (Reds)
  8. Eric Hosmer (Royals)
  9. Wil Myers (Royals)
  10. Shelby Miller (Cardinals)
  11. Jameson Taillon (Pirates)
  12. Dustin Ackley (Mariners)
  13. Mike Moustakas (Royals)
  14. Kyle Drabek (Blue Jays)
  15. Manny Machado (Orioles)
  16. Jacob Turner (Tigers)
  17. Matt Moore (Rays)
  18. Michael Pineda (Mariners)
  19. Zach Britton (Orioles)
  20. Jordan Lyles (Astros)
  21. Chris Sale (White Sox)
  22. Gary Sanchez (Yankees)
  23. Freddie Freeman (Braves)
  24. John Lamb (Royals)
  25. Jarrod Parker (Diamondbacks)
  26. Desmond Jennings (Rays)
  27. Mike Montgomery (Royals)
  28. Lonnie Chisenhall (Indians)
  29. Dee Gordon (Dodgers)
  30. Martin Perez (Rangers)
  31. Casey Kelly (Padres)
  32. Tyler Matzek (Rockies)
  33. Dellin Betances (Yankees)
  34. Kyle Gibson (Twins)
  35. Wilin Rosario (Rockies)
  36. Manny Banuelos (Yankees)
  37. Brandon Belt (Giants)
  38. Aaron Hicks (Twins)
  39. Jose Iglesias (Red Sox)
  40. Jonathan Singleton (Phillies)
  41. Chris Archer (Rays)
  42. Miguel Sano (Twins)
  43. Alex White (Indians)
  44. Wilmer Flores (Mets)
  45. Nick Franklin (Mariners)
  46. Brett Jackson (Cubs)
  47. Mike Minor (Braves)
  48. Brett Lawrie (Blue Jays)
  49. Devin Mesoraco (Reds)
  50. Jurickson Profar (Rangers)
  51. Nick Castellanos (Tigers)
  52. Anthony Rizzo (Padres)
  53. Jason Kipnis (Indians)
  54. Zack Cox (Cardinals)
  55. Travis d’Arnaud (Blue Jays)
  56. Simon Castro (Padres)
  57. Anthony Ranaudo (Red Sox)
  58. Stetson Allie (Pirates)
  59. Grant Green (A’s)
  60. Nolan Arenado (Rockies)
  61. Tyler Skaggs (Diamondbacks)
  62. Billy Hamilton (Reds)
  63. Trey McNutt (Cubs)
  64. Deck McGuire (Blue Jays)
  65. Derek Norris (Nationals)
  66. Tony Sanchez (Pirates)
  67. Brody Colvin (Phillies)
  68. Zach Lee (Dodgers)
  69. Randall Delgado (Braves)
  70. Tyler Chatwood (Angels)
  71. Drew Pomeranz (Indians)
  72. Arodys Vizcaino (Braves)
  73. Chris Carter (A’s)
  74. Cesar Puello (Mets)
  75. Jarred Cosart (Phillies)
  76. Jake Odorizzi (Royals)
  77. Zack Wheeler (Giants)
  78. Carlos Martinez (Cardinals)
  79. Matt Dominguez (Marlins)
  80. Yasmani Grandal (Reds)
  81. Tanner Scheppers (Rangers)
  82. A.J. Cole (Nationals)
  83. Christian Colon (Royals)
  84. Jean Segura (Angels)
  85. Matt Davidson (Diamondbacks)
  86. Drake Britton (Red Sox)
  87. Taijuan Walker (Mariners)
  88. Danny Duffy (Royals)
  89. Matt Harvey (Mets)
  90. Brent Morel (White Sox)
  91. Andrew Brackman (Yankees)
  92. Jake McGee (Rays)
  93. Gary Brown (Giants)
  94. Christian Friedrich (Rockies)
  95. Yonder Alonso (Reds)
  96. Craig Kimbrel (Braves)
  97. Chris Dwyer (Royals)
  98. Josh Sale (Rays)
  99. Matt Lipka (Braves)
  100. Rubby de la Rosa (Dodgers)
  101. Trevor May (Phillies)
  102. Reymond Fuentes (Padres)
  103. Chad James (Marlins)
  104. Chris Owings (Diamondbacks)
  105. Josh Reddick (Red Sox)
  106. Anthony Gose (Blue Jays)
  107. J.P. Arencibia (Blue Jays)
  108. Danny Espinosa (Nationals)
  109. Hak Ju Lee (Rays)
  110. Ben Revere (Twins)
  111. Jeremy Jeffress (Royals)
  112. Christian Yelich (Marlins)
  113. Yorman Rodriguez (Reds)
  114. Delino Deshields Jr. (Astros)
  115. Matt Szczur (Cubs)
  116. Hank Conger (Angels)
  117. Alex Torres (Rays)
  118. Chris Carpenter (Cubs)
  119. Peter Tago (Rockies)
  120. Wilson Ramos (Nationals)
  121. Alex Colome (Rays)
  122. Austin Romine (Yankees)
  123. Jonathan Villar (Astros)
  124. Joe Benson (Twins)
  125. Mark Rogers (Brewers)

Thursday, January 13, 2011

My #1 Prospects Per Team and Top 30 List

Prospecting Log - 3rd Entry

Here are my current #1 prospects per team for 2011, followed by a Top 30 list of each. This takes into account all recent trades that have taken place.

I will create my own Top 100 prospects list next month.

AZ - Jarrod Parker
ATL - Julio Teheran
BAL - Manny Machado
BOS - Jose Iglesias
CHC - Brett Jackson
CHW - Chris Sale
CIN - Aroldis Chapman
CLE - Lonnie Chisenhall
COL - Tyler Matzek
DET - Jacob Turner
FLA - Chad James
HOU - Jordan Lyles
KC - Mike Moustakas
LAA - Mike Trout
LAD - Dee Gordon
MIL - Cody Scarpetta
MIN - Kyle Gibson
NYM - Jenrry Mejia
NYY - Jesus Montero
OAK - Chris Carter
PHI - Domonic Brown
PIT - Jameson Taillon
STL - Shelby Miller
SD - Casey Kelly
SF - Brandon Belt
SEA - Dustin Ackley
TB - Jeremy Hellickson
TX - Martin Perez
TOR - Kyle Drabek
WAS - Bryce Harper

Top 30 (above players only)

1) Mike Trout
2) Bryce Harper
3) Jesus Montero
4) Jeremy Hellickson
5) Julio Teheran
6) Domonic Brown
7) Aroldis Chapman
8) Dustin Ackley
9) Manny Machado
10) Jacob Turner
11) Shelby Miller
12) Jameson Taillon
13) Kyle Drabek
14) Mike Moustakas
15) Kyle Gibson
16) Tyler Matzek
17) Brandon Belt
18) Chris Sale
19) Jarrod Parker
20) Martin Perez
21) Casey Kelly
22) Jose Iglesias
23) Jordan Lyles
24) Jenrry Mejia
25) Lonnie Chisenhall
26) Dee Gordon
27) Chris Carter
28) Brett Jackson
29) Chad James
30) Cody Scarpetta

Comments/critiques welcome.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

2011 Bowman Cases - Worth Investing In For Flipping Purposes?

Prospecting Log - 2nd Entry

Recently, the sell sheets and preliminary checklists for 2011 Bowman Baseball released to the public.

Obviously, Bryce Harper's autograph will highlight the product.

However, many have said the overall prospect crop isn't on the same level as last year's, which was highlighted by Strasburg's Auto, as well as both Harper USA base Bowman Chromes and prospect/rookie autographs of guys such as Heyward, Castro, Ackley, Jackson, Rizzo, Myers, Teheran and Perez.

This year's offering includes autographs of Chapman, Freeman, Drabek, Morel, Alonso, Sale, Belt, Allie, Cosart, Profar and Britton. In addition, unlike last year's Bowman, the 16U, 18U and Collegiate teams will be represented here (again) as manufactured logo patches, #d to 25 made per player.

Last year, I invested in a jumbo case and eventually flipped it sealed for a profit, during the time in which Strasburg's autograph was increasing in value on an almost-daily basis, as prospectors salivated after each of his minor league starts en route to his eventual ML debut.

This year, we have just as much hype riding on Harper's coattails. However, he is clearly much further away from making his Major League debut, and thus, it will take more time for his first autograph in his Nats jersey to realize its' peak.

Which leads me to my question - Assuming you can find them at reasonable levels (say, SRP or less), which of you would buy hobby/jumbo cases purely to flip at a later date, and do you think the ROI could conceivably compare to last year's Bowman?

Pilot Entry

Prospecting Log
Stardate January 12, 2011 (Happy 57th birthday, Howard Stern).

Greetings, prospectors and variations thereof.

I am a buyer and seller of prospects' baseball cards, and have been so for the past 25 years.

I don't profess to be an expert in said field, but I like to think I have good hunches about certain players who I feel will rise above others. While I don't intend to share my innermost predictions with the world (that'll cost ya), I will likely post certain observations that come to light, whether it's about a certain player or a brand of baseball card I feel has potential.

I will likely use Twitter more often than this blog, as quite a few of my light bulb moments are 140 characters or less.

So, stay tuned for some truly uncanny, deranged ramblings from yours truly, as well as some truly tin-canny admissions whenever my predictions fail to come into fruition.

Peace out.

- J.P.